Fall 2025 Energy Market Update: Key Takeaways From Our Webinar
IGS Energy's Fall 2025 Energy Market Update webinar brought together industry insights on the power and natural gas markets, winter weather forecasts, and policy and infrastructure updates. Highlighting the latest data and market trends, supply experts Joe Haugen, Paul Leanza, and Brent Rice explored how shifting demand, reliability concerns, and policy uncertainty are shaping the energy landscape. Here’s a high-level overview of what the team covered.
Power Market Update
The summer was marked by some volatility, due in large part to continued rising electricity demand as well as uncertainty around tariffs and changes to renewable build-out plans. Hourly locational marginal pricing (LMPs) averaged 32 percent higher than in 2024 — with some days exceeding $160/MWh — and grid conditions tightening on multiple days.
Reliability challenges intensified, too: The PJM Interconnection — the grid that manages electricity for 13 Eastern states and Washington, D.C. — declared 11 maximum generation emergencies and seven load management events, a sharp increase compared to prior years and representing the overall impact of climbing demand.
Joe Haugen also focused on:
- How data centers are resharing demand — and the emergence of off-grid trends as developers seek faster generation buildouts outside of ISO queues.
- PJM’s improved forecasting to better anticipate large loads.
- An effort to shift risk to the organizations driving the highest demand, with a potential requirement for data centers to build and pay for generation.
- Capital investment trends, including emerging technologies.
Natural Gas Market Update
Increased energy demand paired with an increase in natural gas supply — but without adequate storage — has led to volatility in the gas market as well.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity is increasing gradually, as teams complete currently under-construction projects. Next year, we expect a steady increase of 3.5 billion cubic feet a day (Bcf/d) in capacity, while that will rise to 4 Bcf/d in 2027.
Paul Leanza highlighted, too:
- The growing need for reliable natural gas infrastructure investment — noting that demand for gas has increased nearly 50 percent since 2013, while the infrastructure to deliver that has increased only by 26 percent and storage capacity has grown by only 2 percent.
- How data center demand also affects the gas market — and is expected to add 90 GW of demand (the equivalent of more than 5 Bcf/d) by 2030.
- The likelihood that market volatility remains, as the industry currently lacks reliable replacement generation.
Winter Weather Forecast
Winter forecasts indicate a typical La Niña pattern, bringing above-average temperatures to the South and East Coast, while forecasts expect below-normal temperatures to the Pacific Northwest and western Canada.
These conditions are expected to persist through early winter before shifting to ENSO-neutral by early 2026, which could influence heating demand and regional energy markets.
Key Webinar Takeaways
- Reliability is under pressure: More emergencies and load management events highlight grid stress.
- Policy uncertainty adds volatility: Tariffs and renewable incentive risks are reshaping investment decisions in the energy industry.
- Natural gas remains central: LNG exports and data center demand are driving growth, but storage constraints continue to drive volatility.
- Capital is flowing: Billions of dollars are being invested in generation, transmission, and innovation, but allocation remains uneven.
The energy sector is entering a period of heightened volatility and structural change. From grid reliability to gas storage, the challenges are clear — but so are the opportunities for innovation and investment.
To stay up to date on the markets, subscribe to IGS Energy’s monthly Market Commentary or connect with a member of the team to explore strategies for your business.